This could be the year. The year that finally brings home the Oscar for the Lord of the Rings trilogy. For those of you who didn't know yet, The Return of the King has already brought home the Golden Globe for best picture as well as Best Director, Best Original Score, and Best Original Song (the Golden Globes don't recognize technical achievements such as film editing or sound effects). Today, the Oscar nominees were announced and ROTK ran away with 11 total nominations (more than any other movie this year) including Best Picture and Best Director (see the full list of nominees here). Given the situation, ROTK is poised as the front-runner in the race. Here's why.....

A.) Nine out of the last ten years, the picture that has won the Golden Globe for Best Picture wins the Oscar for Best Picture.

B.) Often, the movie that recieves the most nominations, does end up walking away with the award for Best Picture.

C.) Although the film has no nominations in the Best Actor/Actress or Best Supporting Actor/Actress categories, it has won awards for best acting ensemble from several different reputable film critics associations including the Critics Choice Awards and the Washington D.C. film critics association.

D.) The "Save the Best for Last" or "Third Time's a Charm" rule. Unlike with most sequels, the academy knew in advance that there were going to be three of these movies. Those of them who had actually read the books before also probably knew that the third film had the potential to be the best of the three. Which it easily is. It would be a travesty to nominate the two previous movies for best picture in consecutive years only to pass over the third and best film at the end.

E.) Other than ROTK, there is no clear cut favorite among the nominees. Master and Commander can't possibly win with against another epic like Return of the King, Lost in Translation is an obscure comedy, and although both Mystic River and Seabiscuit are great films with the potential to take home the prize, voters with a tendency to vote for the more dramatic films may end up splitting their votes evenly between these two.

Of course I can't guarantee a win on this one. There are quite a few reasons why it may not win, like the fact that science-fiction and fantasy films never win the award for Best Picture. But on this one, I'm going to be optimistic.

- these thoughts flowed through Jeff's fingers @ 11:27 AM